这几个月,相信散户心中其中一个很大的疑问是,手套股还有作为吗?如果从八月份才开始持有至今的朋友,基本上都在承受着纸上亏损。有人说手套股的趋势已过,轻舟已过万重山,无谓再留恋。那是不是说,买在高位的,应该壮士断臂? 我们先说一说趋势。怎么定义趋势?趋势是指一个事物发展的动向。比如说,汽油驱动的车将会发展成由电池电力驱动,现在的小孩除了学数理也需要学编程,世界经济主导权将会由西方慢慢转移东方,人口趋向老龄化等等。这些是趋势。 那手套的趋势是什么?回顾过去,每隔一段时间世界都会出现新的病毒或细菌,无论是人为的还是天然的。目前人类对食品工业,生物化学类的研发与投入达到空前。未来擦枪走火,产生新的类似超级病菌或健康威胁的可能性几乎确定。而随着人们卫生意识的提高,手套成为了各行各业性价比最高的保护层,发展中与已发展国家的使用率有增无减。除非强而有利的替代品面世,手套怎么就没趋势了? 原来,他们所谓的趋势,仅是图表中上升与下跌的趋势,无关手套的未来。好。那问问自己,当初是基于什么原因而买入手套股?成长?技术图?基本面?FOMO?这些原因现在还成立吗?如果是基于图表,早该卖了,或者已经来回操作了几回。止损点与套利点应该一早设好。如果是基本面分析,主要的手套公司都处于净现金状态。各个指标如ROE,Margin等,都来到历史最佳。PE也从高位回退。若股价维持,未来几个季度相信PE会持续走低。如果是基于成长前景,目前是各有看法。• 有的人觉得当前好景不可持续,股价已反应利好。疫苗出现,疫情后供需将回归正常,暴利只会是昙花一现。• 有的人对疫苗的有效性与可靠性有所保留,毕竟实验期太短,觉得未来发生意外的可能性非常大,而且目前全球疫情不见好转,还有恶化的迹象。手套的使用率呈结构性的上升,会持续一段很长的时间,与疫前的情况无从比较。就算ASP下滑,也会被暴增的需求补上。另一个思考点是,你自己愿意注射这个安全性待确认的疫苗吗?还是宁愿做好防护,小心一点,观察久一点再决定?多数人倾向于后者。因为万一你或身边的人注射后产生副作用,谁会替你负责?保险公司会买单吗?还是控告制药商?这些都是接下来要面对的问题。 正确的投资观很重要。GIS/BIS教我们看生意。你买的不是股票代码,而是代码背后的生意,老板的能力与诚信,以及行业的前景。了解以后,接下来应该看的是风险。买进的价位越高,风险就越高。9块的风险肯定比8块的高。但风险也有时间性,体现在持有时间的长短。如果一支股票未来三年会涨到15块,现在以7块的价位收购,你愿意持有三年吗?就算中间会跌到4块,你会加码吗? 如果你愿意看得更远,现在感觉过不去的大风浪或许只是未来几年后的一个小涟漪。TG也经历买贵了Aspion的经验,管理层被质疑,股价被疯狂抛售。几年后的现在看回,只是一个小插曲。 前提是你必须坚持投资在A+的公司。所以,一个很重要的观念是,你要知道自己如何从股市中赚钱最舒服。是要投资在好的生意,还是操作股票?是想在股市致富,还是只想赚点口袋钱?策略不一样,心态不一样,面对股市波动的反应也就不一样。 买在高位的话,该守还是壮士断臂?问自己:1. 卖了手套股买什么?手上的资金有更好的选择?2. 公司未来能不能持续保持竞争力?管理层有无能力度过当前危机?3. 未来一年盈利能见度与股息率如何?值不值得付出时间与耐心静观其变?4. 当前股价还有多少的下行空间?心理上能够承受波动吗?有了答案后,心里大致会有个谱。大方向不会错。 投资股票的时间可以是part time, 但态度必须是full time。公司生意要研究,风险管理做好。如此的话,你会明白是什么做对了而赚钱,将来能复制。同样的,就算亏钱,你也亏得明明白白,不再重蹈覆辙。就像人生,不是得到,就是学到。 不管最后结果如何,你都在股市的旅途中得到了宝贵的经验。
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